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New Article Alert: Empirically modelling household vulnerability and food security in Africa

Dr. Bailey and colleagues recently published an article combining data from three countries in southern Africa to better model links between climate change, land-use change, and food security and human wellbeing.


People reliant on agropastoral land systems are vulnerable to variability and changes in land function. Their vulnerability is linked to their exposure and sensitivity to various land system components and is often mediated by access to multiple livelihood capitals. We quantify aspects of that intersection with household vulnerability as measured by food insecurity, and as it is mediated by access to livelihood capitals. We use a structural equation model of household vulnerability, organized under a livelihoods framework, fitted empirically using a combination of information from 726 household surveys. These surveys were conducted in communities in Namibia, Botswana and Zambia, and are contained within a socio-ecological gradient in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area of southern Africa. We provide evidence that adaptive capacity strongly mediates household vulnerability to food insecurity via both direct and indirect pathways that are statistically associated with land use-derived functions.

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